A few stipulations up front:
I agree that for a certain sub-set of the population with a fairly defined list of co-morbidities, COVID-19 can be a dangerous virus.
For people in the sub-set, taking additional precautions makes a lot of sense.
With that out of the way, I think we have all been hearing and seeing a lot of conflicting information about when the virus arrived in the US, how quickly it can be spread, what its mode of transmission is, and, lastly, whether or not we could be looking at a second spike of cases in the fall when the regular flu season starts up again for 2020-21.
I don't think we're going to have a second spike, and here's why: I think COVID-19 has been in the US for far longer than anyone wants to admit. I think many more people have been exposed and those early cases were lumped in to the CDC's 2019-20 ILI (Influenza Like Illness) data. I have two pieces of information that lead me to this conclusion.
First off, I have a nephew - he's the oldest son of my youngest brother. My nephew graduated high-school in May 2019 and decided to join the Marines. He shipped for Marine boot camp at the end of the summer and was wrapping up basic training in October when the vast majority of his basic training group came down with a mystery flu-like illness. My nephew ended up hospitalized for a couple of days at the end of October. He graduated basic and was sent to Florida for more schooling where he ended up hospitalized again, this time for pneumonia. During the second hospitalization he tested positive for influenza as well as pneumonia.
Fast forward to a couple of days ago, when, on a phone call, he related the fact that the military had antibody tested his blood samples from the earlier, end of October, hospitalization. He was positive for COVID-19 antibodies on that test. In other words, my nephew contracted COVID-19 on a military base sometime in October.
How did COVID-19 end up on a military base in October, you might ask? Good question, it leads to my second piece of information. The 2019 World Military Games were held in Wuhan, China from 18 October to 27 October (Google it yourself if you don't believe me).
Returning service members probably brought the virus in, it spread for a time on military bases and then broke out in to the civilian population. At that point, we can switch to the ILI data from the CDC to watch it spread until around March 2020 when it entered the mainstream consciousness via the media and began to be tracked separately. By that time, only the US NE corridor hadn't had significant exposure. In essence, most of the country was at peak or had already passed peak infection by the time federal, state and local governments began quarantine. Which is why we likely won't have a second spike in the fall.